election update: 2/14/08
The Big News- McCain Takes the Lead
The big political news over the weekend is the sudden increase in support for the McCain candidacy. He has soared far ahead of his competitors in national polling (although some polls in Michigan have Romney ahead by as much as 8 points), but as we’ve seen in both parties, momentum is critical. The Romney campaign is barely hanging on, claiming that their lead in delegate votes is more telling than their continued inability to win a state. John McCain’s success could be a passing fad if he can’t follow through, leaving an opening for Mike Huckabee to attempt the first two-state win.
What does this mean for conservatives? Jonah Goldberg is pessimistic, but I feel that this represents a remarkable marketplace of ideas that could forge a candidate very prepared for the national election. Each Republican has to play to different conservative interests: there’s the faith-based crowd, who so far have been solidly supporting Huckabee, the hawks/pro-military types who, I would imagine, are probably behind McCain, the “economic” conservatives (Romney seems logical here), “traditional” conservatives (who seem split across the entire field pretty evenly, which is probably why Fred Thompson is having such a difficult time getting past single-digits), and finally, the utter crazies, homophobes, and racists, who thus far have been solidly behind Ron Paul– for obvious reasons. Mr. 9/11 is still way, way behind, even given his lack of activity as of yet, but if I had to pigeonhole him, I’d say he’s clearly got the support of Democrats that vote Republican. (Certainly these are generalizations– after all, I know sane, tolerant and intelligent Paul supporters, social liberals who are behind Thompson and Huckabee, and near-pacifists that adore McCain).
As a McCain supporter, I’m thrilled to see him in the lead, but I also hope they don’t get too comfortable. Giuliani has yet to activate his “late state” strategy, and South Carolina could still swing Huckabee’s way if he plays his cards right. Let’s not forget that McCain’s current lead in Michigan is believed to be statistically insignificant. Given that the McCain camp still fought even when they thought it was all over, I’m guessing they aren’t sitting back.
The Race Card
Hillary is lucky that she isn’t a man. After decades of political-correctness and identity politics from the left, the issue as to whether or not New Hampshire is racist was bound to come up sometime. Luckily for Hillary, all she has to do is play the sexist card in return. Maybe this sort of class/gender/race warfare will backfire at some point and Edwards will emerge like a phoenix from the ashes. Nonetheless, the founder of BET apparently doesn’t think very highly of Obama– and the Clinton campaign’s made sure we know about it.
I’m hoping that the 2008 democratic race will mean the end of identity politics in America. The left has played this card against their political enemies in the past, and as such, it is clearly in the playbook of both the Clinton and Obama camps. This race could conceivably make the infamous McCain-Bush battle of 2000 look like a schoolyard brawl.
The question is: will there be anything left to use against the Republicans?
2008 Scorecard: Conspiracy Theorists: 0, Reality: 1
Although Ron Paul’s absurd rhetoric should have this reading at least 0/322, I’m going to go ahead and stick to declared conspiracies, starting with accusations that Diebold stole New Hampshire for Hillary. Salon took a look and decided that the verdict is… (drum roll, please)… No. As it turns out, Diebold machines were placed in pro-Hillary districts of New Hampshire, which is the real reason for the electronic versus hand-count discrepancies. (Indeed, some “Diebold counties” came out in favor of Obama). Sorry, Mr. Kucinich, it turns out you still don’t have credibility.
Unsurprisingly, many Paul supporters were saddened when Paul decided (apparently, after serious consideration, which is telling unto itself) against asking for a recount, probably because the margin between McCain and Paul was larger than Paul’s entire reported margin. Already in the midst of allegations that he supervised hate speech in the 80’s, Paul doesn’t really need the extra attention of crazies right now.
Finally: Far Too Little, Far Too Late
They’re calling it “Fredmentum“, but I don’t think it can last. The New York Times reports on an upswing for Thompson, but for right now, I think “Fredheads” should be aiming for a VP spot once a clear front-runner emerges. (Again, I’m hoping that’s McCain, but we’ve got a long way to go to get to the other side of Super Tuesday) It makes sense that Thompson would see a bit of a surge in the South, given that he’s a former Senator from Tennessee… and the fact that the WGA strike is forcing more Law and Order re-runs to flood the networks as Big TV starts gradually running out of stock.
But if he can’t win, at least Thompson could screw things up for someone else: Mike Huckabee, who has already started running anti-Thompson attack ads, presumably because his jittery campaign sees him taking some of the “youth vote”, given his celebrity status. Its southern-folksy versus southern-folksy, and I’m hoping that between that and the ever-forthcoming (but somehow, still imaginary) Romney Renaissance, McCain can once again play the “adult in the room” card and come out ahead.
Up and Coming
Things to look forward to this week: 1) Continued sniping between Hillary and Obama, quite possibly on a level that may start to offend large groups of people,; 2) Romney and McCain may start fighting dirty in Michigan, and with McCain’s endorsements piling up, (including a prominent supporter of Romney’s father), this could get ugly for both of them; 3) (As always) Further implosion of the Paul campaign as his supporters gradually realize he’s completely unelectable unless the contest happens in Texas; 4) my wild and crazy prediction is that Al Gore may latch on to the Clinton campaign in order to defuse the “establishment” criticism she’s been facing; 4) finally, MacWorld is this week, and I’m not going to make any predictions, because they’d be totally wrong.
Just like everyone else’s.
